The use of aggregate, average and annual data to conduct a CVRA, especially at the higher latitudes, carries the risk of ignoring short-term variations that might be crucial for policy-making.ย Seasonal patterns and short-term climate-shocks are smoothed out within such aggregated datasets, meaning that the analysis based on such averages would fail to capture the full extent of the impacts on social and economic systems.
Verdurous has developed and employed an innovative โmarginal analysisโ methodology that uses high-frequency and context-specific statistical data to estimate the mathematical relationship between the evolution in climate parameters on the one side, and economic and social variables on the other.ย This approach allows for a more nuanced study of the impact of short-term variations in climate on the economic variables for the corresponding time period. The Verdurous CVRA methodology consists of three steps:
1. ย Preparatory Phase: involving a review of qualitative information and data collection
2. ย Quantitative Assessment: to establish the statistical relationship between the climate parameters and economic indicators and social indicators
3. ย Forecasting and Scenario Building: to understand the potential impact of the variations in climate on the economy and on civil society.
Key Findings from the CVRA in Kyrgyzstan are as follows:
i)ย ย ย ย ย ย Seasons are expected to shift by at least a month on average over a 30 year climate cycle, with winter arriving later and summer stretching well into September each year.ย In other words, seasons were shifting by about 1 day per year, on average.
ii)ย ย ย ย Higher temperatures in February could lead to increased precipitation in March, resulting in a cooler March and a colder April.
iii)ย ย ย Consequently, energy consumption was projected to reduce in the warmer months and to rise in the colder months. ย Projections suggest a decrease in electricity consumption in February, increased demand for space-heating in April, and increased electricity demand in August. Likewise, demand for space-heating in the month of June is projected to progressively reduce through to year 2030.
The Verdurous team then studied the National Adaptation Plans (NAP) of 52 countries, some with similar socio-economic profiles, and the team went on to develop the NAP for the Kyrgyz Republic. Verdurous has also developed the detailed benefit-cost analyses for 10 Adaptation projects that were presented to development partners and investors for eventual implementation.